Breaking Down (Most of) The 2024 Oscar Nominations
This year’s Academy Award nominations have finally been released, marking the beginning of the end for this year’s awards season circuit, and I thought I, like all respectable entertainment outlets, would do some prognosticating for who will triumph in the Dolby come March.
First, a disclaimer that I’ve never closely followed the international, documentary or short categories—mainly because they often play at my local theater in the weeks after the nominations are announced, so I’m not currently able to make an informed opinion on nomination day. It’s a similar story with many of the technical categories, not because I haven’t seen those films, but because I lack the specialized knowledge to say what is truly superior work. We do have another Barbenheimer showdown in a few of those categories, and those could honestly cut either way, with both Barbie World and Los Alamos having been meticulously crafted by the respective teams.
It’s also worth noting that while the Oscars are ostensibly about honoring the best films of the past year, that certainly isn’t the only thing that factors into Academy members’ decisions. Reading the tea leaves often requires a bit of reading between the lines and adding some real-world context to why decisions might be made; it’s just how the game is played. I’ll make note of these types of narratives as we go through the categories.
One last bit of housekeeping: while not always directly correlated, it is not uncommon for those projects who won at January’s Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards to later win at the Oscars, which is why I often bring up those related results in a category.
With all that out of the way, let’s get into the remaining categories, where I’ll play the classic awards season game of “Who Should Win and Who Will Win?”
Best Visual Effects
Who Should Win: The stunning “Godzilla: Minus One.” I don’t normally talk about the technical categories, but since this is the film’s only nomination, I wanted to touch on it. Done on a modest $15 million budget, Toho creates an incredibly realistic (and often frightening) modern rendition of the King of the Monsters. The opening scene alone showcases both the strength of both the visuals and the story, and taking home the gold would be a wonderful cap to the success “Minus One” has enjoyed the past few months.
Who Will Win: Likely still “Minus One.” I could see “The Creator” sneaking in on the strength of its effects alone, but I think the narrative surrounding “Minus One” combined with its fantastic effects will secure it the win. The short story: released in Japan in the winter to rave reviews, “Minus One” made it to American shores shortly after and absolutely exploded. It was rightly hailed as one of the best entries in the Godzilla canon, managing to expertly balance monster mayhem and intimate human stories. Showings quickly sold out as word of mouth spread, and the film’s stay on American screens was continually extended and expanded before finally wrapping up later this month. Since this is the film’s only nomination, I expect the Academy to honor it as a way of recognizing the impact it has had even beyond visual effects.
Best Score
Who Should Win: Ludwig Göransson for his riveting and technically masterful work on “Oppenheimer.” Göransson’s score has achieved rock star like levels of popularity (over 200 million streams and 2 billion plays on TikTok, per The Hollywood Reporter), and for good reason. “Oppenheimer” is a talky, three-hour drama that never once lost my interest, in large part due to Göransson’s work. Running the gamut from tension to sweeping wonder to quiet intimacy and beyond, Göransson creates a musical landscape that skillfully captures the troubled and complex mind of the father of the bomb.
Who Will Win: Odds are still on Göransson. I wouldn’t count out Jerskin Fendrix (“Poor Things”) as a dark horse candidate, but Göransson has a lot of momentum behind him with wins at both the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, plus I feel his score is simply more deeply intertwined with the film than the other nominees.
Best Original Song
Who Should Win: Ryan Gosling’s tragi-comic lament, “I’m Just Ken.” Given this might be the only non-technical win “Barbie” picks up, the Academy should just commit to the bit and give it to Ken. Both nominated Barbie songs are equally good, but from a marketing/viewership perspective, having “I’m Just Ken” take home the gold is just too good a meme to pass up.
Who Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”, Billie Eilish’s heart-wrenching “Barbie” ballad. Eilish’s song is a haunting encapsulation of the themes of Barbie, and if this is the big win for “Barbie,” it makes sense that the Academy would give it to something so thematically relevant. Though “I’m Just Ken” did win out at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Eilish’s song has always been the realistic frontrunner since awards season started, and I just can’t see the Academy taking that big of a swing for the “I’m Just Ken” upset.
Best Animated Feature Film
Who Should Win: Disney-Pixar’s “Elemental.” While “Elemental” wasn’t necessarily the box office win the House of Mouse wanted, I contend it was still a creative triumph, and easily Pixar’s best work post-pandemic. Both visually and emotionally beautiful, “Elemental” deftly mixes a touching romance with a multi-generational immigrant story to create a tender, wonderful film.
Who Will Win: It’s a toss-up between “Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse” and Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron” Both are excellent and both have great narratives behind them. “Spidervese”, the sequel that’s somehow better than its breakout predecessor (which also picked up the Oscar) and “The Boy and the Heron,” the latest masterwork by Miyazaki, and possibly his last, if he decides to retire for good this time.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Should Win: Robert Downey Jr., for his searing performance as Lewis Strauss in “Oppenheimer.” In a complete 180 from his decade-long stint as Tony Stark in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Downey Jr. simmers throughout the film, the complexities of Strauss waiting just below the surface to be unveiled, leaving audiences to wonder what makes him tick and just when the façade might crack. Strauss is a man constantly fighting to keep his powerful emotions in check, and when he does finally hit his breaking point, Downey Jr. delivers those scenes with startling intensity. Many, Downey Jr. himself included, were curious to see if he could find his “prestige” acting chops again after such a long stint doing summer blockbusters, and his turn in “Oppenheimer” has shown the answer is a resounding yes.
Who Will Win: Still likely Robert Downey Jr. This category is essentially between Downey Jr., who gave a career high performance in “Oppenheimer,” and Robert De Niro, who gave a career high performance in Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon.” They’re on about equal footing in terms of the talent of their performances, and once again I feel that Downey Jr.’s awards circuit momentum with wins at the Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards will push him ahead of De Niro.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph of “The Holdovers.” The film follows three characters “holding over” at a boarding school during Christmas break, one of whom is Randolph’s Mary, the head lunch lady who recently lost her son in Vietnam. “The Holdovers” succeeds thanks to the stellar performances of all three members of its core trio, including Randolph. She showcases incredible range throughout the film, alternating from sharply clever to deeply grieving all while exerting a maternal presence over the fractured relationship between Paul Giamatti’s Professor Hunham and Angus (Dominic Sessa), the lone student holding over with them.
Who Will Win: My gut says it’ll still be Randolph. Yet again, while there are definitely other contenders (Emily Blunt for “Oppenheimer” or possibly America Ferrera for “Barbie”), Randolph’s momentum is a significant asset. Like many others on this list, Randolph has won her category at both the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, and it would take a large shift for her to not eventually nab the Oscar.
Best Lead Actor
Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy for his portrayal of J. Robert Oppenheimer. After years of being a side player in Christopher Nolan’s productions, Murphy was given the chance to be the star, and he certainly delivered. Arrogant yet insecure, supremely intelligent yet often unable to read the room, Murphy not only lets in the audience into Oppenheimer’s head, but does so in a way that feels instinctively understandable. Following WWII, Oppenheimer fights (in vain) to mitigate nuclear arms production. With the benefit of hindsight, his quest seems Quixotic, and Murphy imbues that tragedy in to every scene. “Oppenhiemer” the movie succeeds or fails on the shoulders of Oppenheimer, the man, and Murphy stunningly inhabits the father of the bomb in all his complexity.
Who Will Win: As we get into the “Big 6” categories— Best Lead Actor/Actress, Best Original/Adapted Screenplay, Best Director and Best Picture— it becomes more difficult to decisively say who the Academy might pick. Murphy is obviously the front runner, but I could also easily see Paul Giamatti or Jeffrey Wright pick up the win for “The Holdovers” and “American Fiction,” respectively. In a year without “Oppenheimer” I’d say Wright is a lock; we’ll see how it all shakes out in March.
Best Lead Actress
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan for her portrayal of Felicia Montealegre in “Maestro.” Mulligan’s Montealegre is the beating heart of Bradley Cooper’s film, as we watch Felicia fall in love with Cooper’s ascendant Leonard Bernstein, only for their marriage to become stressed by Bernstein’s fame and bisexuality. For all of that though, Montealegre still loved “Lenny,” as she called him, very deeply, and Mulligan powerfully portrays both the ferocity of that love and what it cost Felicia throughout the film.
Who Will Win: Either Lily Gladstone or Emma Stone for “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Poor Things,” respectively. Stone won at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the Globes don’t tell us much, as they separate comedy and drama. Though I’ll give a slight edge to Gladstone here. She’s certainly deserving, having held her own on screen against Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. And even nearly a decade after the Oscars So White scandal, I think the Academy is very aware that snubbing Gladstone for either Mulligan or Stone would not be a good look
Best Director
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan, for the impeccable work he did on “Oppenheimer.” If there was anyone who could turn a three-hour historical drama into a certified blockbuster, it was Nolan. (Sorry, Marty). From his commitment to recreating the Trinity test with practical effects to the decision to shoot the film on the 70mm IMAX format for maximum immersion, Nolan took what on paper should be just mildly interesting and turns into something utterly riveting.
Who Will Win: Nolan, and I’d say it’s a fairly easy win at that. This is probably the easiest win for “Oppenheimer,” thanks in large part to the sheer scale of what Nolan accomplished. No disrespect to the other nominees, but to me, the amount of effort Nolan put into “Oppenheimer” simply outclasses everyone else.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Should Win: Say it with me, one more time: Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer.” Nolan took the 700+ pages of the absolutely gargantuan Oppenheimer biography “American Prometheus” and turned it into a slick and emotionally resonant three-hour ride. In typical Nolan fashion, we approach Oppenheimer’s story non-linearly, switching back and forth in his timeline to elicit the most powerful emotional beats. There are a couple moments that might be read as a bit heavy-handed, but I think they’re not heavy-handed because they’re painfully true—the ending, especially, still hits like a truck every time I watch it.
Who Will Win: This is a tough one. As with Lead Actor, I think “American Fiction” has a real chance of pulling off an upset. Again, in a year without “Oppenheimer” I think “American Fiction” easily takes home the statuette, and in fact it did at the Critics’ Choice Awards. “American Fiction” has the classic personal-stakes, character-driven script while “Oppenheimer” takes that similar character drama but plays it on a grand scale mixed in with Nolan’s habits. I’ll say “Oppenheimer” will eventually come out with the win, but it’s very much a toss-up.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Should Win: Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers,” with a script by David Hemingson. “The Holdovers” is a decidedly low-stakes movie, where all of the drama and conflict comes from the ways in which the characters interact and not some impending threat. Three disparate but similar loners are forced to stay at a boarding school over Christmas break: Paul Giamatti’s grumpy Professor Hunham, student Angus Tully, played by newcomer Dominic Sessa, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s Mary, the head lunch lady who is still grieving the son she lost in Vietnam. Stuck alone (but together) over the holidays, the film follows the trio as they search for some kind of human connection and the hope of a happy ending. It instantly made my Christmas movie list after I watched it, and it’s the kind of simple, heartwarming movie that just doesn’t get made that often any more.
Who Will Win: Definitely not “Barbie.” What, too soon? All jokes aside, yes, “Barbie” should have been classified as Original, not Adapted, and more importantly, “The Holdovers” will likely still take home the gold here. The other serious contender is “Anatomy of a Fall,” which won the Globe in January (“Holdovers” was not nominated). It is a tight race between the two films for sure, but “Anatomy” has more chances elsewhere to pick up a win, and much like with “Godzilla: Minus One,” I think the Academy will take this opportunity to reward “The Holdovers,” as it’s really the only place they can, unless Giamatti pulls off an upset in Lead Actor.
Best Picture
Who Should Win: This is one of the tougher decisions I’ve had in a long while. While the “Who Will Win” sections often take some predicting or guessing how the Academy might react to certain films, the “Who Should Win” portions normally are pretty easy, just being the thing I thought was the best of the nominees. This year, however, there are two films I feel confident in saying could be my best of the year, and they’re wildly different. One, as you might have guessed, is “Oppenheimer.” The other is that film’s serious rival in the Adapted Screenplay category, Cord Jefferson’s “American Fiction.”
Both are incredible films (I’ll get into specifically why in a minute) but they go about their execution in wildly different ways. “Oppenheimer,” as I have mentioned, is an intense, dialogue-heavy, political thriller, a Shakespearean-like tragedy telling the tale of a man who irrevocably changed the world then desperately tried to change it back. “American Fiction,” on the other hand, is a razor-sharp satire of the literary world (and the entertainment sphere in general) that hones in on the importance of family and the importance of the bonds we form with other people, whether they’re family or not.
Both films have themes and messages that need to be heard, and that’s part of why they resonate so much with me. The central premise of “American Fiction” is one of race relations, and the way Black experiences are transmitted and shared through the entertainment industry. How do writers (and their readers) avoid being pigeon-holed into one particular perception of their race? Should creators cater to their audience or the companies that cut the checks? “American Fiction” offers no easy answers, but it asks these questions in such an incisive (and often hilarious) way, that you can’t help but sit there and ponder them alongside the film’s characters.
“Oppenheimer,” meanwhile, is perhaps a little less obvious in the way it applies to modern society, but I think it is no less important. The most critical part of “Oppenheimer” is not the United States’ position on nuclear arms (though I will say history seems to have proved Oppenheimer right), but the broader lens of the way science and government intersect. J Robert Oppenheimer was the one of the most important men in America, whose intelligence and leadership led to the creation of the weapons that would eventually win the Allies WWII. But as soon as Oppenheimer began speaking out against the status quo, asking for arms control instead proliferation, attempting to divert focus away from the hydrogen bomb program, his career was quickly ended. For simply expressing his opinion and trying to do what he believed was right, Oppenheimer was essentially blacklisted and exiled from policy by the United States government. In short, “Oppenheimer” warns us of the perils of casting aside scientists simply because we may not like what they have to say, which seems shockingly appropriate right now, when we find ourselves still in the wake of a global pandemic.
So which one of these should win? Honestly, I’m not sure. I could pick one and give a reason why, but I’d be just a likely to pick the other one the next day. Both sit at the top of the crop of 2023’s films, and I would be happy to see either pick up the ultimate prize in March.
Who Will Win: Now for the easier question: which one of these films will win? My money is, once again, on “Oppenheimer.” I strongly suspect we are going to see an “Oppenheimer” sweep on Oscar night, and I’m perfectly fine with that. As I’ve said repeatedly, Nolan and the team have created an absolutely phenomenal movie and they deserve to be recognized for it. If “American Fiction” ends up winning, that’ll be a great moment too. Without a doubt, 2023 was a banner year for film, and regardless of who gets the gold in March, I think it’ll be one of the most exciting Oscar shows we’ve had in recent memory.