Breaking Down (Most of) The Oscar Nominations
With this year’s Academy Award nominations finally released, we’re rapidly approaching the end of the awards season circuit, and I thought I, like all respectable entertainment outlets, would do some prognosticating for who will triumph in the Dolby come March.
First, a disclaimer that I’ve never closely followed the documentary or short categories—mainly because they rarely play at my local theater—so I don’t have an informed opinion on those. It’s a similar story with many of the technical categories, not because I haven’t seen those films, but because I lack the specialized knowledge to say what is truly superior work. The new “Avatar” seems like a lock for the Visual Effects award, but the others are all toss-ups to me, especially Costume Design, featuring a strong three-way battle between “Babylon,” “Elvis” and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” Moreover, there are two major categories this year that I haven’t seen many of the films in (Best International Feature Film and Adapted Screenplay), so I won’t really be covering those.
It’s also worth noting that while the Oscars are ostensibly about honoring the best films of the past year, that certainly isn’t the only thing that factors into Academy members’ decisions. Reading the tea leaves often requires a bit of reading between the lines and adding some real-world context to why decisions might be made; it’s just how the game is played. I’ll make note of these types of narratives as we go through the categories.
One last bit of housekeeping: while not always directly correlated, it is not uncommon for those projects who won at January’s Golden Globes to later win at the Oscars, which is why I often bring up the related Globes result in a category.
With all that out of the way, let’s get into the remaining categories, where I’ll play the classic awards season game of “Who Should Win and Who Will Win?”
Best Cinematography
Who Should Win: The master Roger Deakins for his work on Sam Mendes’ “Empire of Light.” The film is more or less a two person play, and Deakins moves the camera and lights scenes in a way to create that intimate, theatrical feel to great success. You feel as if you are right there with the principal characters, quietly observing the small moments between them.
Who Will Win: This is a tough one. I’m still leaning Deakins, but I could easily see Mandy Walker (“Elvis”) or even James Friend (“Western Front”) taking home the prize. Cinematography skirts the line of being a technical category for me, so it’s hard to be decisive, but Deakins’ work felt so important to “Empire of Light” that I think he’ll snag it in the end.
Best Score
Who Should Win: Justin Hurwitz, for his impeccable work on “Babylon.” In a movie that was more than a little bit disorganized, Hurwitz continued to bring his A-game as director Damien Chazelle’s go-to musical collaborator. Hurwitz’ score runs the gamut from vibrant and kinetic to intense melancholy and never falters; it is undoubtedly one of the highlights of the film.
Who Will Win: Likely still Hurwitz. In a field of great nominees, Hurwitz’ score manages to be the powerful emotional throughline of its film, consistently elevating the visuals to its audio. There’s a slim chance John Williams can steal it away for “The Fabelmans,” the Academy giving it to him as a de facto lifetime achievement award, but I think the odds of that are fairly low, especially given that Hurwitz’ score, at least in this instance, easily outclasses Williams’. Sorry, John.
Best Original Song
Who Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from S.S. Ramajouli’s opus “RRR.” The only song that doesn’t simply play over the end credits (unsurprising in a year light on musicals), “Naatu Naatu” embodies the ethos of Ramajouli’s film—purposely over the top but somehow still riveting—to a tee.
Who Will Win: “Naatu Naatu,” and I’d reckon it’s a fairly easy win at that. Not only is it so unique among its fellow nominees, this is the only nomination for “RRR” as the film didn’t make the cut for Best International Film. This works in the song’s favor as a win here doubles as a nod to the impact “RRR” has had as a whole, and I could see Academy members following that thought process.
Best Animated Feature Film
Who Should Win: “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” my personal favorite film of 2022. I wrote at length about my love for the film in my 2022 film Top 10 list, so I won’t rehash that here. Suffice it to say, “Marcel” is a film with astounding complexity that belies its simple premise, and the entire cast and crew work together to create a film genuinely moved me.
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s “Pinocchio” adaptation. As much as I would love to see “Marcel” take home the prize, I just can’t see it happening. “Marcel” has the fewest animated portions of any of the nominees (Marcel is a stop motion shell in a live action world), and del Toro is the clear frontrunner. He won at the Golden Globes at the start of the year and just as important, he’s got a fantastic acceptance speech, centered on the statement that “Animation is a medium, not a genre.” Like I said above, lots of subtext at the Oscars.
(For the record, I wholeheartedly agree with del Toro’s statements about the importance of treating animation with the respect it deserves, I’d just like to see a little less politicking and a little more meritocracy when we hand out these awards.)
Best Supporting Actor
Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan for his fantastic turn in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Another film at near the top of my 2022 roundup, “Everything” is built around the performances of Quan and Michelle Yeoh, and both are doing some of their best work. Through the film’s multiverse conceit, Quan gets to play a variety of characters from action hero to a lovelorn director to an unassuming regular guy who just deeply loves his family. Keeping it brief, but if you want more detail about Quan, please check out my write-up from the Best of 2022 list.
Who Will Win: Quan, by a country mile. Not only is Quan the definite standout in terms of his acting, he’s also got a spectacular story. (Sensing a theme?) A former child actor who had given up on acting, Quan not only made a return, but was suddenly the star of a critically and commercially acclaimed film. Quan has been open about how unexpected his journey has been, and that arc combined with his exceptional performance makes him all but guaranteed to complete his Cinderella story come March.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Should Win: Stephanie Hsu, who played Quan and Yeoh’s daughter in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” This family forms the heart of the film’s wild multiverse adventure, and Hsu’s contributions are vital to that success. Much like Quan, she gets to play a variety of roles, but the focus is on the strained relationship Hsu’s Joy has with her parents and the way that she, like many teenagers, just desperately wants to be seen.
Who Will Win: I honestly don’t know. This is one of the widest open races on this year’s program. Any of the five women could easily win it, it’s hard to say with certainty where the Academy might be leaning. Angela Bassett did win at the Globes, but in a race like this, that isn’t the lock it is for people like Quan or del Toro. Watch this one closely.
Best Lead Actor
Who Should Win: Brendan Fraser for his visceral, wrenching performance in “The Whale.” Yet another film that was on my 2022 Top 10 list, so I’ll once again keep this bit short. Fraser more or less carries the film on the strength of his performance as a broken but caring man trying to reconnect with his estranged daughter.
Who Will Win: Either Fraser or perhaps Colin Farrell. Austin Butler, despite winning the Globe, likely doesn’t succeed, mainly because his win was likely just as much about not giving it to Fraser as it was Butler’s performance—as always, lots of politics in the awards, and Fraser has a messy history with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the organization that puts on the Golden Globes. In a choice between Fraser and Farrell, I still think Fraser can win. The two are on about equal footing in terms of performance, but much like Quan, Fraser has been staging a bit of a comeback to the enthusiastic support of the Hollywood community and audiences. His incredible work in “The Whale” paired with the real-world context makes him the favorite.
Best Lead Actress
Who Should Win: Michelle Yeoh for her starring role in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Much like her co-stars, Yeoh gets to play a wide swath of roles in the multiverse movie but she still anchors her incredible performance in the love she has for her daughter and her desire to salvage that relationship.
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett as the hyper-controlling master composer Lydia TárTar. It’s the quintessential Oscar movie, and I’m just not sure the Academy can get behind something as eccentric as “Everything Everywhere” in the top categories. If the Globes are any indication, Blanchett will win out over Michelle Williams, the other potential contender, but they don’t offer any help in the Yeoh/Blanchett face off, as they were separated by the Comedy/Drama split. I’d love to see Yeoh win and be pleasantly surprised, but I’m not holding my breath.
(If Andrea Riseborough somehow wins, we just descend into chaos).
Best Director
Who Should Win: Unsurprisingly, I’m yet again backing “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” I’m running out of things to say about this film (really, just go read my piece in the 2022 recap), but suffice it to say Daniels Kwan and Scheinert made a fantastic film.
Who Will Win: Either Martin McDonagh for “The Banshees of Inisherin” or Steven Spielberg for “The Fabelmans.” Both men won at the Globes due to the Comedy/Drama split, so it’s hard to tell who has an edge. McDonagh arguably has the better work, but much like John Williams in the Score category, I could see the Academy giving it to Spielberg as a kind of grand finale for his career.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Should Win: Once more, with feeling—“Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Kwan and Scheinert have accomplished a great feat in making a movie that is so utterly nonsensical but at the same time deeply profound. There’s a reason “Everything Everywhere” got 11 nominations, it really is that good.
Who Will Win: Martin McDonagh and “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Coming off a Globes win as the frontrunner, “Banshees” seems primed to win. While the film does have a darkly funny script and undoubtedly would deserve the win, there’s also some more of the classic Oscar politicking going on.
Since “Banshees” feels like a pretty good lock, I’d like to take a moment here to talk about why I don’t think “Everything Everywhere All at Once” will be able to rack up major wins, even if I think it should. Simply put, in the “big” categories (Best Actress, Screenplay, Director and Best Picture), “Everything Everywhere” is up against a more traditional contender, and I find it difficult to see the Academy hard pivoting into an “Everything Everywhere” sweep. Maybe the film wins one of the big four, though it’s difficult to say which one; excluding Best Picture, I think the film has an equal chance of pulling off in upset in any of the categories.
Best Picture
Who Should Win: You all know what I’m going to say: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” There’s little I could add that I haven’t already covered in the prior categories and I think we all know where I stand and why I’m picking this.
Who Will Win: This is another tough category, particularly because Best Picture has 10 nominees as opposed to the others’ five. They all have a chance, however slim (looking at you, “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar”). “Elvis” and “The Fabelmans” are dark horse contenders, but I wouldn’t bet big on them. To me, it comes down to either “The Banshees of Inisherin” or “Everything Everywhere.” And, as I said above, I think the Academy will stick to the norm and award “Banshees” the top prize, but I sincerely hope I’m proved wrong.